🔗 Share this article

Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|